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I have a bike that looks like a total clunker, but it's not. Right after I bought it, I peeled off all the pretty decals and labels, and suddenly the bike didn't look so new. Thieves look for the brand names most in demand, and this helps to thwart that. The decals left some adhesive gunk on the bike, which I didn't wash off -- it picked up dirt rather quickly, which also made the bike look less desirable. (If you prefer to get the gunk off, I recommend a biodegradable citrus-derived terpine solvent.)
I got some bicycle-sized stickers and slapped them on. You can get these at Critical Mass, at bike shops, skate shops, and/or wherever political buttons and stickers are sold. If you change your mind (e.g., if your political beliefs change, or you're being hassled for them), just peel them off and deal with the adhesive gunk the same way you did when when you pulled off the decals and labels.
A variation on this is to find some cloth tape, electricians' tape, or even duct tape, and wind it around the frame in zany patterns. A similar approach is to give the bike an idiosyncratic custom paint job.
Components are targets for theft in their own right, especially if they look new. I used a metal file to scrape the brand names off -- Shimano, Sachs, StealMe, etc. -- and, since most of these components are black, I applied flat black paint onto the parts that were scraped. Bikes are festooned with too many brand names, and they seem to find new locations for them every year, and some of them are hard to file off! I cover these with stickers.
Beater Bike: A similar tactic is to only take your "nice" bike where it'll always be indoors or otherwise safe, and use a cheap "beater" bike for areas where bike theft is more likely. Not bad if you've got the space for two bikes, but if you don't, see above about making your nice bike look like a beater. Be sure to lock up the beater bike anyway, of course.
I handled the space issue by switching to folding bikes, and my "beater" is a one-speed Italian folding bike that was made in the 1970s. I've gotten quite attached to it, though, and would be crushed if somebody stole it!
Being in New York City got me to use a "New York Chain," and I was given some savvy advice to replace its tiny yellow U-lock with the type of padlock used to secure storefronts. The chain can be worn as a stylin' (though heavy) belt. It comes with a slipcover, which protects your bike's paint job, but which can also pick up grease and grime. I've taken to slipping it on before locking the bike and slipping it off when wearing the chain.
If things aren't so bad that you need a chain, get a good U-lock. I recommend hardened, narrow ones such as Kryptonite's "New York" or "Evolution 3000" models. The official way to lock the bike is to take the front wheel off and lock the frame and both wheels to a stationary object. If I'm in a relatively safe area, I just lock the front wheel and frame to a stationary object; otherwise I carry two U-locks, because I think that's less hassle than taking a wheel off all the time.
(Sheldon Brown has a different strategy, locking the rear wheel to a stationary object, somewhere inside the frame's rear triangle. This makes sense, but alas, some of my bikes' frames don't have a rear triangle.)
Don't leave empty spaces in the U-lock, where a thief can fit a scissors jack or a leveraging tool in. This generally means getting a lock that's not much wider than one or two wheels, plus the frame, plus the stationary object. (Stationary objects vary in size, though, so find a lock that matches the objects in your area.)
Some people carry both a cable and a U-lock, to facilitate locking another wheel and even the seat, but most lightweight cables aren't secure enough for the areas where I park my bike. If you can lug around a really serious cable such as Cobra Links or the Quadra-Chain, that plus a U-lock would be a major headache for a bike thief.
I replaced my quick-release seat axle with one that requires an allen wrench. Not entirely secure, but it'll at least slow them down. You can use a length of old chain to secure the seat to the bike frame (wrap it with electrical tape or a length of old inner tubing to protect the frame). I was thinking of finding a seat cover that makes the seat look old and worn out, but instead I managed to put a rip in the side of the seat, which serves the same purpose.
I replaced my quick-release skewers for ones that required an allen wrench for removal, but they weren't made very well, so I reverted back to normal skewers. I've heard of a brand that comes with a custom tool, one of 128 combinations.
Mountain and cross bikes tend to have sturdier wheels than road bikes. This is a consideration in my area, because one often sees parked road bikes with their wheels vandalized. Some of my friends think this is done by frustrated bike thieves.
Indoors or In Sight: The best way to avoid bike theft is to take the bike inside with you and lock it up. Make sure it's secure even when it's indoors: many bikes are stolen from basements, garages, or sheds that are easy to break into. If you can't bring it inside, try to lock it up near a window, where you can keep an eye on it.
Now that I own a folding bike, I find myself wheeling it inside a lot. Most places don't seem to mind a little folding bike. And never forget: it is easier to get forgiveness than permission.
Outdoors: There's always a shortage of bike racks, no matter where I live. Municipals governments seem to slow to install good racks, so people find other solutions -- and often these solutions get messed up by thoughtlessness.
For example, most bikes in San Francisco get locked to parking meters, but in 2002 the city began replacing these with new ones, which made it impossible for bicyclists to secure a frame and wheel with a secure narrow U-locks. New York City seems to think that bikes should only be locked to bike racks, of which there are thousands fewer than bikes in use, and saws off locks and chains and takes bicycles -- without so much as leaving a note. (Usually this is done randomly, though in 2004 the NYPD started doing it as part of its campaign to harass Critical Mass bicycle riders.)
What's needed is more secure bike racks, and lots of them. Short of that, emergency policies to allow bikes to be locked elsewhere, so long as it's done safely.
Write down the make, model, year and serial number of your bike and store them in a safe place (for example, a watertight container kept in your freezer). This information can help the police locate your bike if it's stolen. If you don't have this information, the chances of your bike being recovered are very slim (supposedly a lot of stolen bikes are found, but can't be returned to their owners).
There's a national bicycle registry service that will keep that same information (make, model, year, and serial number) in a database, for a fee. Some folks think it's worth the money; others think "freezer registration" is sufficient. If you want to take advantage of Kryptonite's guarantee, you need to use the registry service (and, alas, your bike also needs to be stolen by somebody courteous enough to leave the remains of your lock behind).
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